It was, in the words of A.O. Scott, "The Great Box Office Slump of 2005.”
Only two short years ago the doomsayers were predicting the death of modern American cinema. In retrospect, it is easy to see that this wailing and teeth gnashing was premature. However, even after a season of record-breaking box office, the industry has the potential for another downturn.
While blame can be placed on the surge of home theater systems, the DVD boom, and the shortened window between theatrical and home video release, the proverbial straw that could still break an already weakened back remains: the diminishing caliber of films. As more projects are forced into the pipeline, exhibitors could see their audiences -- already distracted by a myriad of entertainment options - become alienated in favor of their non-theater entertainment activities.
Currently, the studio system is still flush with the success of last summer. But this could be a critical juncture in the exhibition industry: 2006 was the first in the previous three years to show an up-tick in ticket sales with an increase of 1.4%.
The theaters stood in the sun when Transformers, with a $147 million budget, easily covered the money with over $315 million and counting. But when will Michael Bay be stranded on his next "Island"? Meanwhile, Judd Apatow is laughing all the way to the (sperm) bank with the $30 million budgeted for Knocked Up while the lower budgeted Superbad, $20 million, is grossing almost $267 million domestically, while costing only a little over a third of Transformers budget.
Where may the studios and exhibitors find safety in the numbers? One direction to look is at the world of independent film. There is a reason studios have created or acquired specialty arms to deal with the development and distribution of what would not typically be considered mainstream fair. Independent film allows filmmakers to focus more on quality without being as concerned with the box office returns. While this is not always successful, when it works it can be very profitable.
No one would have thought a little French documentary about the mating lives of penguins would be successful, but almost $77,500,000 would have March of the Penguins proving that line of thinking flawed. All of this from an $8,000,000 film that launched on only four screens.
In the fiction realm, the $16,000,000 budgeted Sideways went on to collect over $71,000,000 at the domestic box office. While not every film would perform as successfully as My Big Fat Greek Wedding (over $242 million gross on a reported $5 million budget) or The Passion of the Christ ($370 million+ on a reported $30 million budget), it wouldn't take too many like these to make the idea of producing indie-like seem worthwhile.
Movies are a communal experience, one that cannot be equaled by home theaters. If the studios offer exhibitors something worth signing up for -- without having broken the production bank - cinema, with an indie touch, could become a weekly excitement for many families, just as it once was. It’s worth a try.
